Market Qualification Study

KRD Renewables completed a comprehensive market study of Poland’s renewable energy sector, designed to provide investors with a clear understanding of the regulatory, technical, commercial and financial conditions affecting renewable energy development in the country. We assessed the full project-development environment for solar PV and onshore wind, covering permitting and planning requirements, grid interconnection, renewable-energy revenue mechanisms, public auctions, Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), merchant electricity prices and project economics. The study also reviewed indicative CAPEX and OPEX levels and considered the emerging role of corporate PPAs and alternative grid solutions.

KEY FINDINGS

The study found that Poland was developing into an increasingly mature and attractive renewable-energy market, with particularly strong potential for solar PV. However, KRD identified grid infrastructure as one of the most significant barriers to further deployment of renewables, alongside technical and spatial planning constraints. Investors also faced risks associated with regulatory change, electricity-price volatility, off-taker creditworthiness, contract duration and grid availability.

Grid access presented a particularly significant challenge. The study highlighted more than 6,000 grid-connection refusals between 2015 and 2021, representing approximately 30 GW of capacity, demonstrating the scale of the infrastructure bottleneck. KRD consequently examined potential solutions including cable pooling and direct lines.

The analysis also identified increasing opportunities for corporate PPAs, estimating that approximately 3-7 GW of projects could operate under cPPA structures in Poland in the coming years.

THE CHALLENGE

Conducting a market study of this scope requires navigating a rapidly changing environment. Polish renewable-energy legislation was evolving frequently, electricity prices were highly volatile, and geopolitical factors made reliable forecasting difficult. Grid assessment was especially challenging because detailed network-analysis data was non-public and the connection-assessment process lacked transparency.

WHY IT MATTERS

Market qualification studies provide investors and developers with the evidence needed to understand whether opportunities are technically feasible, commercially attractive and financeable before significant capital is committed. By identifying regulatory, grid, revenue and financial risks early, KRD enables stakeholders to make better-informed investment decisions and develop more resilient renewable-energy projects.